Solar PV
CA could go 100% renewables. Sempra spun off Pxise Energy that has patents with OSIsoft. Raises questions about the necessity of new fossil fuel plants. Risk portfolio of a solar PV project much more different than a portfolio of batteries. Thermal Power Energy efficiency analytics firm raises equity from Blackstone. Founders former Johnson Controls. Cost of service repaid from energy savings in about 6 months. Blackstone analyzed 20 firms. Charges building owners $2,000 to $20,000/month. Typical customer pays about $36,000 to $48,000/year. OPEC extended oil production cuts but oil prices fell. Likely create a significant drag on global demand for oil. US refining and exports at record highs. Capacity Resource auction prices continue lower. 2 nuclear facilities fail to be competitive. Solar and wind fail. Opportunity for resources that can be despatched like CHP. Energy prices expected to remain flat. OPEC and Russia extend production cuts. US producers have increased production by over 800,000 BPD since 2016. US added 174 oil rigs representing 600,000 BPD of oil. Latest News Corporate PPA for renewables. RE100, 90 companies have committed to 100% renewable power. 10 states have 13 green tariff programs for customers to purchase renewables over the grid. Global LNG supply glut for the next 5 years, forecast a severe gas supply shortage as early as 2024. Energy storage project deployment expands as costs reduce. 50% decrease in storage system costs over the last 2 years. Lithium-ion is the technology for the next 3 to 5 years. Solar-plus- storage now less than the cost of a new CT. Primary market will be pairing storage alongside new solar projects. This captures the ITC for the storage, and makes the solar generation dispatchable. Li-Ion battery production projects planned in EU. Global battery-making capacity from 103GWh to 278GWh, 2x by 2021. Batteries 1/3rd cost of new cars. Cut cost of Li-ion by 43% from $273/kWh to $156/kWh. Plug-ins 20% auto sales or 21MM by 2030. Currently Asia controls the battery business: LG, Samsung and China. Panasonic + Tesla $5BBN gigafactory in NV, 2nd in NY, expect 3-5. 35GW/year of capacity. Mercedes Benz $543MM plant. US JV with Vivent. Germany plans 6MM electric cars by 2030. Large-scale factories planned NorthVolt $4BN Sweden by 2023, Hungary and Poland. Enel wind + battery increased output by 30%.
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February 2019
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