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Energy Finance and M&A

2/2/2018

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Solar PV & Wind
Solar and wind generation with energy storage competitive with coal power. Xcel Energy RFP for 450 MW received 430 bids and selected the following:
- Wind 1.8 c/kWh
- Solar 2.95 c/kWh
- Wind + Storage = 2.1/kWh < coal
- Solar + Storage = 3.6/kWh < 75% of coal
AZ 2017 RPF selected Solar + Storage = 4.5/kWh
States expected to be effected most by solar PV panel tariffs: CA, TX, FL, GA and SC.
PURPA challenged in Michigan, Montana and Idaho. PURPA successful in NC and Utah. 20-year PPA for projects < 2MW. 

Energy Storage
Energy storage that can create microgrid for remote Pacific Islands and remote pipelines. System can disconnect from the network to form its own microgrid.
 
Oil & Gas
China is the leading oil importer ahead of the US and OPEC.
US oil production highest in almost 50 years.
 
Latest News
GDP growth expected by some > 5%, market consensus 2.2-3.2%. Forecast of business confidence hits series-record high. Warning signal for a potential rise in future CPI. Green bond issuance is expected to exceed $200 BN in 2017. ISO NE auction Feb 5 of 33 GW expected online 2021/22. Northern NE "export-constrained". Developers of clean energy renewed focus on asset management. Weather forecast. Australia installs 4.9 GW of 6.5 GW announced. Over 1 GW was commissioned in 2017, remainder executed 2018. 46% new projects solar PV. Forecast growth for 2018:
Renewables - 100 GW solar, 59 GW wind. Expect massive growth in the US before ITC ends 2020. Storage - 2 GW/4 GWh EV - 1.5 MM Wood pellet sales data backward looking but indicative of the future.
88-90 projects representing 12 MM TPY wood pellets Wood Price $28.50-$29.50/ton Energy Content 8,500 btu/lb, Ash 4-5% Pellet Price US $158-171/ton Pellet Price Export $116-148/ton

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