Solar PV & Wind
Residential solar PV system cost $1.22/W.
Coop and muni solar PV were 21% of capacity added in 2017, 18% in 2018.
US could get 80% energy needs from wind and solar, 100% if add storage. Confirms NREL report from 2012. Shortfall Solution: Transmission and 12-hour storage.
Storage might qualify for ITC if charged by renewables. Battery cost $2,900/kWh.
4.2 MW grid-connected residential storage deployed in 3Q17. 202% growth.
US 50 GW storage in the next 10 years.
PJM has the most utility-scale battery storage capacity, from 38 MW to 274 MW in 2016. Over 90% for frequency regulation.
Battery will lose at least 40% of its capacity over 20 years. 1/3 residential solar PV is sold with a battery. Need standardisation to integrate storage
Supply to meet EV demand. Mine infrastructure for battery potential, especially copper, nickel and cobalt. Need 4.1 MM tons of copper, 1.1 MM tons of nickel and 314,000 tons of cobalt. Cobalt production in Congo, Australia, Canada and Norway. Tempered by a lack of new mine projects, limited investment in the sector, fewer new projects and risk of mine disruptions.
Oil & Gas
US increase crude oil exports supported by expanded production and infrastructure.
Growth in biofuels and carbon sequestration in partnership with FuelCell Energy.
Marcellus shale breakeven $2.52/bbl.
Madava Financial energy focused lender has $5 BN to deploy. ABL from GS.
Henry Hub spot prices to average $3.20/MMBtu in 2018, $3.08/MMBtu in 2019. Brent spot prices will average about $62/bbl in both 2018 and 2019, was $54/bbl in 2017. WTI = Brent + $4/b
Gap between US corporate debt and annual growth rates was the lowest since 2011. AgTech Sector $7.8 TN, investment $10.4 BN, investors 1,500. $20 BN investment in data centers during 2017. 300 MW expected in 2018. Vacancy rate < 5%. 50% capacity committed. Forecast wood pellet supply from ME to EU. Opportunities in the UK and EU. Western Canada pellets seen going to Japan, expect 9 MM TPY.